Based in Ottawa, Canada

We apply science to the data problems holding your business back.

Your business decides with confidence, spends smarter, and scales what's actually working.

10+
Years data science experience
4
Disciplines in one end-to-end decision stack
50+
Models built across marketing, ops and analytics

Most firms start with an approach

We start with the problem, not the tool.

AI shops feed everything to a language model. Traditional data science teams reach for the same statistical playbook. Either way, the tool is chosen before your problem is understood. They give you a solution shaped by their capability, not your requirement.

Our approach

Every engagement begins with a diagnostic. First we understand how your business works, what's actually known, what's uncertain, and what a quality solution genuinely requires. The approach follows from that.

We draw on statistical modelling, causal inference, data engineering, mathematical optimisation, and ML/AI engineering in whatever proportion the problem calls for. Most of the time that means the simplest, most reliable combination that works.

Example A

For one client, we replaced a demand forecast running inside a language model with a purpose-built ML model thereby improving accuracy and removing token cost completely. The end result was more interpretable, easier to monitor and fit for purpose.

Example B

For another, we built an anomaly detection agent where the language model handled natural language diagnostics and email reporting, while deterministic tools underneath it did the actual detection. Each layer doing only what it's genuinely good at.

Where we use AI agents, deterministic logic and traditional models sit beneath them as callable tools.

Accuracy
Hallucinations
Token costs

In regulated or lower-complexity environments, we favour self-hosted models over foundation models entirely. The environment shapes the design, not the other way around.

Diagnose before prescribing

The problem structure determines the approach. Never the reverse. We don't arrive with a preferred solution, we arrive with the discipline to understand your situation first.

Every component earns its place

If something can be solved deterministically, it should be. AI is extraordinary at some things and unreliable at others. We don't use it where it doesn't have a genuine advantage.

Rigour built in at every layer

A composed solution is only as strong as its weakest part. We hold the data, the model, and the output to the same quality standard throughout.

Tested, secure and documented

Every solution is tested against real data before it reaches production. Security, reliability, and maintainability are not afterthoughts, they are part of the specification from day one.

Customer analytics

Customer retention: predicting and preventing churn

A scaling business wants to know which customers are at risk and intervene before they leave. Here's how we'd design the solution and why.

Layer 01 Data modelling

Data integration & pipeline

Pull together behavioural signals, transaction history, support interactions, and product usage into a single clean customer record. A churn model is only as honest as the data beneath it. This isn't where AI helps — it's where engineering discipline matters.

Layer 02 Statistical rigour

Survival analysis as a tool

+

Model time-to-churn using a proven statistical framework that respects censored data and gives interpretable, calibrated probability estimates. Survival analysis was built for this exact problem structure. Feeding raw data to a language model here would produce confident-sounding noise. We turn it into a tool that the LLM can call.

Layer 03 AI engineering

AI-powered interpretation

+

Translate model outputs into plain-language account summaries: why this customer is at risk, what the signals are, what the intervention options look like. Generative AI excels at synthesising structured outputs into something a commercial team can act on without a data science degree.

Layer 04 Deterministic delivery

Communication & delivery

+

Set up automated scheduled jobs and email integration to share the text summaries with the team to action. Deterministically built and tested with no need to burn tokens on every call.

Operations

Inventory costs reduced through optimization

Manufacturers are faced with outdated reorder rules that ignore actual demand patterns, and excessive material waste resulting in tied-up working capital and waste.

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Demand Forecasting

Demand forecasting through predictive inventory modelling

Supply chain teams often react to stockouts rather than anticipating them. By the time a product shows signs of depletion, the reorder window had closed.

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A/B testing

A/B testing for feature performance measurement

Product team ship features without a reliable way to measure their impact. Decisions are then made on intuition and incomplete metrics.

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AI engineering

Agentic AI system for operational decision workflows

Businesses make key markdown and promotion decisions through manual review of spreadsheets. The process is slow, inconsistent, and didn't scale.

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01 Start here

Diagnostic

A structured review of one business problem you are currently facing and what it would take to solve it using data-driven approaches or AI Automation. We choose the best approach for your specific business and document a clear roadmap detailing how to solve the problem. We will provide no-obligation pricing on implementation during the diagnostic.

$2,000
Fixed cost
Deliverables
  • Review of existing data and measurement infrastructure
  • Gap analysis, determining what's reliable, what isn't and what's missing
  • Prioritised roadmap for the next step
  • 45-minute feedback session with Q&A
02 Core engagement

Project

From $5,000
/ project

A defined implementation with a clear deliverable. The methodology depends on the problem including causal inference, mathematical optimisation, machine learning, AI engineering, Data modelling, data pipeline or a combination. You receive something working and repeatable.

Deliverables
  • A working, tested deliverable such as a model, system, analysis, automation or integration
  • A tested, documented handover so your team can use and maintain it
  • Findings presented to relevant stakeholders
  • Documented approach where applicable
03 Ongoing

Retainer or Maintenance

$2,500
/ month

Models need attention as conditions change. Agentic systems need monitoring and improving. Ongoing retainer keeps your analytical infrastructure current and extends the relationship to new problems as they arise.

Deliverables
  • Quarterly model refresh with updated data
  • Ongoing monitoring and alerting
  • New problem evaluation as the relationship develops
  • Monthly check-ins

Not sure which applies? The Diagnostic is the right starting point, it defines the problem before any approach is chosen.

Built inside real scaling platforms. Production-grade and reliable.

Lerilo is a boutique data science practice specialising in data-driven solutions to your most pressing business problems.

The founder spent ten years as a Data Scientist focussed on challenging real-world business problems, optimization and automation. Not advising. The person in the data, writing the code, building production models, presenting findings to the C-Suite and VPs on decisions that mattered.

Ranging from in-depth analysis to support high-stakes business decisions to AI powered automation. Actually implementing real high-impact solutions that most consultants can only talk about.

Causal inference Mathematical optimisation AI engineering Machine learning Data pipelines Statistical analysis Data modelling
01

Business first

We bridge the gap between business and deep technical work, presenting results in a way a business audience can understand and act on.

02

Rigorous

Every component is held to the same standard. We don't cut corners on data quality, model validation, or output integrity.

03

Actionable

We deliver findings that can be acted on immediately not presentations that require translation by another team.

04

Proven results

From warehouse slotting to marketing attribution, we implement solutions that most consultants can only talk about.

Every engagement starts with a conversation about your problem, not a pitch about our capabilities.

Start a conversation

The first conversation costs nothing and clarifies everything.

Tell us about the business problem you are trying to solve.

Message received.

I'll be in touch within one business day.

Office
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Base & hours

Based in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada and working with companies across Canada and the US.

Mon – Fri, 9am – 6pm Eastern